The weekly incidence of Covid increases nationwide: in the period from 18 to 24 March it is 848 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 725 per 100,000 inhabitants in the last. And in the period 2-5 March, the mean Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1.12 (range 0.87 - 1.44), an increase compared to the previous week (when it was equal to 0.94) and with a higher value above the epidemic threshold for the first time since last October.
The same trend is recorded for the transmissibility index based on cases with hospitalization (Rt 1.08). This is confirmed by the weekly monitoring of the Iss-Ministry of Health.
To return to similar data, it is necessary to look at the ISS-Ministry of Health monitoring of November 5, 2021, relating to week 13 to October 26, 2021, when the average Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was in fact equal to 1.15 (range 0.93 - 1.28) and therefore above the epidemic threshold.
The transmissibility index Rt has remained below 1 since then to return to exceed the epidemic threshold in this week's monitoring, placing itself at 1.12.
According to the latest national bulletin , the rapid spike in the epidemic curve is also leading to a rise in hospitalizations, already evident in some regions.
It is a situation that is prompting many experts to recommend prudence in reopening: loosening the measures is inappropriate and not justified by epidemiological and health data, according to the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the National Research Council (Cnr), and prudence is a must. also for the physicist Enzo Marinari, of the Sapienza University of Rome.
(Unioneonline / vl)
