From May 7th at 4:30 p.m., the moment of entry into the Sistine Chapel, the cloistered regime will begin, without cell phones or other contact with the outside. A regime to which not only the cardinal electors of the next Pope will have to submit, but also those who come into contact with them to help them.

The Church "is not a Parliament, nor a political gathering, but a convocation in the Spirit." Thus spoke Francis with prophetic words towards the conclave that would elect his successor.

Never before, in fact, with so many cardinals meeting in the Sistine Chapel and with the temptation to reason according to political schemes, that old adage of the progressive-moderate-conservative positioning is being called into question by a magma scenario : there are cardinals who, as soon as they meet, meet hour by hour in last-minute circles and huddles, sometimes according to geographical areas (for example, that of the former Commonwealth which goes from Great Britain to the island of Tonga, passing through South Africa); or cardinals who coagulate around king makers like the American Timothy Dolan (a bit tarnished this time around but still strong in his direct line to Donald Trump) or around movements themselves like that of the Community of Sant'Egidio (several of those who came to Rome for the election visited Monsignor Vincenzo Paglia).

A mobile geography of the Sistine Chapel in which profiles of last-minute papabili emerge, underdogs without a doubt, who could benefit from the failure to reach the quorum by the strong candidates at the start . In the Sistine Chapel there will be 133 - considering the two resignations confirmed so far - to express their vote, expressions of different currents and thoughts even if 80 percent nominated by Francis (108 created by him, 20 by Benedict XVI, taking into account the two absentees, and 5 by John Paul II). Created also beyond an orientation similar to his.

The fact remains that a patrol opposed to him and of a decidedly more traditionalist and conservative nature has already emerged. Here is the American Raymond Leo Burke, his fierce opponent, and he has often been seen entering the congregations arm in arm with the Guinean Robert Sarah, also the protagonist of a clash with Bergoglio in a pro-Ratzinger key. Many Africans could join this front (they compactly raised the barricades against the document Fiducia supplicans on the blessings of gay unions) . A patrol that would be on the rise after the even surprising attacks launched in the Congregations against Francis' reforms, for example by a king maker (of the Roman party) like the non-elector cardinal Beniamino Stella.

It is also true that in the last few hours this front has said it is ready to abandon the most divisive names such as the German Gerhard Mueller, in favor of compromise names such as the Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa (well regarded by CL and the Ambrosian church which does not have an elector in the conclave); the cardinal of Budapest, Peter Erdo (already a papal candidate in the previous conclave and who would not displease other exponents of Eastern Europe); that of Colombo, Albert Malcom Ranjit and the Dutch Willem Jacobus Eijk. Here too, however, the cards are being reshuffled: recent rumors tell of an Erdo ready to step back and converge his votes on the equally compromise figure of Pietro Parolin.

On the progressive front, the one most in tune with Francis' pastoral approach, the spearhead of the Community of Sant'Egidio, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, remains without a doubt. The other name circulating is that of Cardinal Mario Grech, the cardinal to whom Francis had entrusted the path of the synodal Church. Maltese, affable, fluent in English and Italian, Grech is a reliable profile in the line of continuity. But here too, outsiders are emerging on the rise. Not only the Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline who yesterday in Rome said mass in Italian, reassuring those who feared his poor knowledge of languages; the Portuguese Josè Tolentino de Mendonca, who the more he is attacked by traditionalists, the more he grows.

And then the Salesian Angel Fernandez Artime, the Spaniard on loan to Morocco, Cristobal Lopez Romero and for the moderates the Swede Anders Arborelius. At the center are the mediating figures, such as the ever-strong Secretary of State of Francis, Pietro Parolin, a fine diplomat from the school of Achille Silvestrini, but now targeted for the agreement with China . The American but missionary in South America, Francis Prevost, and the figure of the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, a Ratzingerian by training and a Bergoglian by temperament who would satisfy that entire growing front of the Asian Church which, globe in hand, now claims a Pope from its own geographical area . In the last conclaves, after the Italians, Europe has given a Pontiff twice, Latin America once, Africa and Asia are, so to speak, in credit.

(Online Union)

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