According to Donald Trump's very recent statements reported by the media, and following the attacks carried out in recent days by Kiev, "Putin has been hit hard and will hit hard". Therefore, translating the concept into money, the hypothesis of reaching peace in Ukraine still seems distant. Washington's mediation between Moscow and Kiev has not yet produced the hoped-for and strongly expected results, and the American disengagement (at least that's what it seems to appear) on the fate of the entire affair seems to be in the air. The hypothesis of a negotiation in the short term is probably fading away. Yet, in the heat of his election campaign, just a few months ago, Donald Trump was staunchly claiming that if he had been President, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine, almost as if to mean (without explaining why, however) that his mere presence in Washington could have deterred Vladimir Putin from starting the conflict. He also claimed, again during the election campaign, that, once re-installed in the White House, he would be able to restore peace within twenty-four hours. What elements were at his disposal to be able to release statements of that consistency is not known. In particular, today, on the first statement, not having divinatory skills, he could actually say nothing about it, because in February 2022 the tenant of the White House was Joe Biden with all that ensued. On the second, however, it can only be noted that the announced twenty-four hours from the moment of his proclamation (to remember him January 20, 2025) have passed and that the war is still going on more bitter than ever. It may seem like an obvious reflection to be easily appreciated by the community, but the very recent developments of the conflict, with the hypothesis of an immediate peace increasingly distant, should inspire some questions that are anything but suggestive. Even more so when the decision-making process has directly involved, and still involves, Russia and the United States of America, leaving both Ukraine and the European Union in an almost marginal position (at least this is the impression one gets). Almost as if to underline their irrelevance on the international level. If this were the case, we would find ourselves faced with a paradox: that Ukraine, in the absence of guarantees on its immediate and future security, would have nothing or almost nothing to gain with respect to a ceasefire, even an immediate one, and the other that, in the given situation, Russia could strengthen its interest in continuing the conflict. With all the consequences, even if only potential, on the level of geopolitical relations with the major international players such as China. The current US foreign policy would seem, at the moment, still in the definition phase and, as it may appear, in fact far from what have been the consolidated structures and historical alliances up to now. The circumstance, therefore, beyond its destabilizing imprinting, could be useful to understand Donald Trump's strategic line, which is more pragmatic and certainly less interventionist than that of his predecessor in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and which, indeed, would seem to want to favor direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev with respect to which the latter could find itself in a more difficult position. It would seem, and the use of the conditional is necessary, that the mediation undertaken so far by Washington, despite good intentions, has in some way distanced (perhaps) the prospect of reaching the end of the conflict. Moreover, it is hardly worth reflecting on the effects of the internal fracture that has arisen in the relationship between Donald Trump himself and Elon Musk. First of all, because Elon Musk's contribution in guaranteeing Donald Trump's current power, stability and consensus seems to have been decisive. Therefore, because, consequently, his disappearance could even have a significant impact on the international strength of the figure of the current tenant of the White House, limiting his appeal and therefore his ability to intervene decisively on the most critical issues, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Giuseppina Di Salvatore – Lawyer, Nuoro

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