War in Ukraine, Parsi: "Too many thought Putin was bluffing, but he was tragically serious"

Vladimir Putin got his calculations wrong. "Not only did he not foresee the strenuous resistance of the Ukrainians , - explains Vittorio Emanuele Parsi, professor of International Relations at the Catholic University of Milan to the Sardinian Union - but it also led to the re-consolidation of Europe which now, in response to the an 'unprovoked' invasion wanted by Russia, it is more determined than ever to isolate Moscow and achieve strategic independence ”.

And on the war he states that “it could last longer, we talk about weeks, and it could be more and more brutal. Putin is angry, he hoped that being a bully would be enough to get everything immediately and instead it did not happen ”.

Professor Parsi, before February 24, the day of the invasion, were there any signs that Putin was being serious?

“They were all there and converged, but for months, since the end of last year. Too many thought the Russian president was bluffing. Instead, they were real threats, and when they weren't enough, he took action ".

Could the aggression have been prevented?

"Yes, both on the military front and on the diplomatic front, with a major conference for security in Europe in which Kiev also participated and whose possible outcome could be that of an international guarantee of independence and neutrality for Ukraine, similar to that obtained for Austria and Finland. Nothing has been done ".

President Zelensky has also long declared that there was no alarm.

"Because he too was probably a victim, like the Europeans, of the gigantic and systematic amount of Russian lies, something that has rarely been seen in recent history. The Russians still claim not to bomb, not to have invaded."

What kind of war is Putin unleashed?

“It is the same that the Russians conducted in Chechnya or in Aleppo, Syria. A war in which the civilian population is targeted to force the opponent into despair. It is a barbaric way, carried out with criminal methods beyond all limits ".

Is there a possibility that Putin will be tried and convicted as a war criminal?

"Yes, but it is very low. It is right that the International Criminal Court prosecute him and if necessary try him, even in absentia, for the crime of unjustified aggression against a people, for the inhumane way in which he is waging this war, for the 'use of weapons that are prohibited by international conventions. It is unlikely to happen, but in history you can never say never ".

However, it would be too late to stop it.

"There is no doubt about this".

Do you think that the European sanctions are effective?

“The sanctions have limited effect on the war itself, but they have a great influence on the postwar order. When Europe decides that by the end of the year two thirds of the gas will no longer be bought by Russia and that it will treat Russia as a hostile country, this is a permanent fact, it will always be like this, even if tomorrow we stop shooting. The sanctions hit the country permanently for the crimes committed, and will remain so as long as there is that leadership in that country. Those approved so far are undoubtedly heavy: they have just started and have already led to a third reduction in the value of the ruble. Russia is almost at default ”.

What did Putin do wrong?

"His military strategy, it is evident. He set up a conspicuous but largely conscript army for the invasion. He saw his special forces fail to carry out targeted actions, such as the elimination of Zelensky. He underestimated capability. of Ukrainian defense and is losing vehicles, planes, men, because he did not expect such a reaction. Now he is forced to take a much longer action, much more visible, even more dishonorable, and this also explains his anger. But even if he wins this war, he has already lost. "

Because?

“Whether or not he manages to bring Ukraine under his heel, he will have a country of partisans. Let us not forget that the Ukrainians, after the Second World War, continued to resist the Soviet forces for years, in the woods. Not only that, it has achieved the reunification of Europe and the front with the United States. Europe now has the awareness, and is working towards this, that it needs strategic, economic, energy and military independence. All things that weren't a priority before. The EU has the opportunity to come out of this crisis much stronger. We saw it in Versailles. Again, there are neutral countries like Sweden and Finland that want to join NATO: if Putin's action was aimed at having more security for Russia, albeit with criminal methods, he failed to do so. He committed a crime that he did not pay and will not pay ”.

Should the no-fly zone be granted as Zelensky asks?

"The no-fly zone requires that everything that flies over those skies must be pulled down, and this would inevitably lead to a direct confrontation with the Russians. Not only that, it could also be of little use. The cities not yet encircled, those of the missiles are hit with missiles. The missiles are not airplanes, they are not easy to knock down. It would perhaps be more useful to provide Patriot-type anti-missile defense batteries, at least in western Ukraine, such as in Lviv, where so many refugees are massing , where there could be a missile attack by the Russians in the next few hours ”.

Some say that the Ukrainians should give up to stop the massacre: what do you think?

“A cynical and cowardly pacifism. The only hope the Ukrainians have of obtaining less harsh conditions is to fight and keep fighting. As was the case with the Finns. If Finland did not end up under the Warsaw Pact like all the rest of Europe conquered by the Russians, it was because in 1939-40 the Finns fought so hard that even Stalin made two calculations and realized that it was not convenient for him to go forward".

How long can this war last?

"I'd say weeks".

Is there a possibility that it will also extend to Georgia and Moldova?

“Possible but not probable. Putin is already in trouble enough like this. The more the Ukrainians resist, the less it can think of expanding its operation elsewhere. The Ukrainians are also fighting for the Georgians, even for the Moldovans ”.

Energy front: will Italy become more dependent on other countries to avoid dependence on Russia?

“The diversification of supply regions is only a step, and Algeria as well as Qatar are infinitely less of a problem for us than Russia. They are not countries that threaten our interests as Russia is with Putin in government. We must then diversify the sources, go faster towards the ecological transition, in exchange for renewables, think about the so-called new nuclear power. We must get rid of hydrocarbons, only in this way will we be independent from any blackmail ".