"The game begins now." The European Commission has presented the defense plan - the White Paper with the '2030 horizon', on the one hand, and ReArm Europe on the other - and the 27, for the first time, can discuss it organically with the cards on the table. The entry positions, however, are different, sometimes divergent. This is why the negotiation - beyond the formal conclusions of the summit - cannot but get to the heart of the matter. The blue-star executive, as can be seen in the rooms of the Justus Lipsius, photographs the "current situation." However, the leaders must now make practical choices, and this is usually when the real problems in the EU emerge.

Let's start with what unites us. In the final drafts, the 27 invite "to accelerate work on all fronts to decisively increase Europe's defense readiness within the next five years". Words defined very clearly compared to the standards.

The leaders then ask "the Council and co-legislators to rapidly advance work on the recent Commission proposals" and to "urgently start implementing the actions identified" at the last summit on March 6 in the field of the military sectors of primary interest and to "continue with the related financing options". And it is a sufficiently broad formulation to allow the capitals not to stumble at the first waltz. "There is no plan for an in-depth discussion of the Commission's proposals", explains a European source. The roadmap, in fact, plans to close at the European Council in June, scheduled immediately after the NATO summit in the Netherlands, where the allies will be called upon to increase spending targets - we are talking about at least 3% - under the energetic impetus of Donald Trump. Of course, three months is a very long horizon and some stages envisaged by ReArm Europe (for example the activation of the derogations from the Stability Pact on security spending) should occur well before.

"We are aware that there are now expectations, after a series of meetings, and they must be managed, because we cannot invent a new formula every time", confides a diplomat. The reality is that there is not, at the moment, a clear list of who will certainly activate the clause and who will not, only clues (Germany certainly, Holland perhaps not, countries with high debt like Italy and France are on the fence).

The other thorny issue is the "buy European" rule, strongly supported by France to boost the blue-star industry. Here too, positions are divided, between those who would like a more open value chain, perhaps including the US, after having had access to the 150 billion fund - called Safe - designed to encourage joint procurement, especially on large projects of collective interest such as air defense, long-range missiles, cargo planes, cyber or space.

In the general framework, the great issue of financing with the derby between those in favor of Eurobonds and those against them. Now there is nothing on the common debt but, it is pointed out, the defense plan presented to the leaders by Ursula von der Leyen is to be understood as "a first step". "Countries that have resisted for decades have completely changed their position, today there is a very broad consensus in the EU Parliament and we will also test it on defense spending: nothing must be off the table", said for example the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, speaking of Eurobonds. "For Europe these are decisive days", echoed von der Leyen.

(Online Union)

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