“Risks are growing along the slippery path of rising Italian GDP: the expensive energy weighs on industry, while the new infections are weighing on services. Employees have returned to pre-crisis levels, consumption is fueled by accumulated extra savings, exports have restarted, but there is more uncertainty about investments ”.

The alarm comes from the economists of Confindustria.

The trade association fears that some trends, which sharpened in the fourth quarter of this year, could put a spanner in the works for the Italian recovery, which in 2021 should lead to an increase in Gross Domestic Product of more than 6% .

“Inflation is very heterogeneous in the various economies, therefore the Fed in America has already accelerated on the exit from the expansionary measures, a prelude to the rise in rates, but not the ECB in Europe. The scenario has become uncertain for the Eurozone, while the US is weakening ”, the industrialists still know.

Above all, the high prices of energy and the increase in infections are worrying.

The costs of electricity and gas will continue to rise next year and could knock out the most energy-intensive industrial sectors: companies could follow the example of Portovesme srl of Portoscuso, which has decided to close the zinc production line up to when prices do not fall again.

The increase in Covid-19 cases - linked to the spread of the Omicron variant - instead risks leading to new restrictive measures and thwarts the recovery of some service sectors (tourism in primis).

The future of the Italian economy is also made more uncertain by the trend of inflation , which in Italy is currently growing (+ 3.8%) with rates lower than those recorded in Germany (+ 6%).

Finally, according to the economists of via dell'Astronomia, our scenario will also be conditioned by the economic dynamics - still difficult to predict - of the Eurozone and the United States (the latter in a slowdown phase).

(Unioneonline / F)

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