Four beds and the only parameter that kept the island in the white zone will fall. With an incidence well above fifty cases per hundred thousand inhabitants and with Covid hospitalizations in intensive care at 14 percent (therefore beyond the threshold of 10 set by the Ministry of Health to remain blank) Sardinia remains "clinging" to hospitalizations in the medical area in order not to pass yellow: maximum limit of 15 percent, which means 240 beds out of the 1,602 available (according to Agenas data).

Yesterday, however, the daily report of the Regional Crisis Unit recorded an increase of 12 units in these hospitalizations, thus reaching 236 occupied beds. It is essential to understand when Omicron's race on the Island will peak. “Difficult to predict today. There are still three variables at stake: school, Omicron 2 and our behavior ”, underlines Giovanni Sotgiu, epidemiologist and university professor of medical statistics in Sassari.

There are essentially three reasons: "The first is linked to the world of schools, which reopened a week ago. In many regions there is a strong increase in infections in the 0-9 year range, which was not registered during the holidays. The resumption of activities didactics, in general, can move the curve of infections. The second aspect is linked to Omicron, or rather to the sub-lineage discovered in the Netherlands, the BA.2, which is spreading a lot in Germany as well. The fear is that this variant, let's say Omicron 2, which shares 32 mutations with Omicron but has 28 other mutations, also arrives in Italy and on the island. It is therefore essential to monitor. The third variable is instead that determined by our behavior. Said and reiterated a thousand times, the virus walks on our legs so it is still essential to behave well and respect the rules to the letter. If this is not done, the peak has yet to come. "One thing, however, also for Giovanni Sotgiu is clear: to understand if the island is The peak “there are really a few days to go”.

POSITIVE AND SICK - Meanwhile, there is a first opening to the proposal made by the Regions to "cut" the isolation for asymptomatic positives who have already completed the vaccination cycle.

The pandemic “is not over yet, but the progressive emergence of the Omicron variant on the Delta is changing its connotations, making it necessary to adjust our strategies. The communication of data must be updated, and the new phase must soon lead us to review the rules, especially for the management of hospitals ”, says Undersecretary of Health Pierpaolo Sileri.

Even the regional health councilor Mario Nieddu is "on the same line" illustrated by Sileri, and also agrees on the two weeks proposed by the undersecretary before coming to the review: "I think it is a reasonable time to allow the system to be adapted ". Which would also affect the classification of the Regions: a different count of beds would remove the spectrum of the yellow zone - now very close - or even orange from the island.

Even those on the front line approve the change of method: "There would be some positive aspects, because symptomatic patients are far fewer than the 1,300 daily cases of these hours, and even fewer are those who need treatment in the hospital, thanks to the campaign vaccination ”, observes Goffredo Angioni, head of the infectious disease department of the Santissima Trinità hospital in Cagliari.

(Unioneonline)

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