What we don't know about migration

We talk a lot about migrants and migration, but in doing so, we often fall prey to fears and clichés. We must begin first with the often little-known facts of the numbers to understand a phenomenon that affects everyone and has been a hallmark of human history since the dawn of time. Roberto Volpi, an expert in statistics, helps us understand one of the great phenomena of our time by drawing on the power of available data. He does so in his latest, original essay, "Promised Land" (Solferino, 2025, pp. 240, also available as an e-book).

We first asked Roberto Volpi how many migrants there are in the world today:

First, a definition: according to the Population Division—the UN division responsible for collecting, making accessible, and developing population data and trends for all countries and regions of the world—an 'international migrant' is someone who emigrates from a country of origin to a destination country to reside there for at least 12 months. Well, there were 304 million international migrants in the world at the end of 2024, and since the estimate was made just a few months ago, it can be said that migrants are precisely that number today: 304 million, equal to 3.7 percent of the current 8.1 billion inhabitants of our planet. The first thing to note is that this figure is double that of 1990, when there were 154 million migrants and represented 2.9 percent of the population of our planet at that time.

Why is analyzing data and numbers important to understanding today's world?

Today's migrations trace a geography of paths, routes, and landings on the surface of the earth, providing a powerful interpretative key to today's troubled world. This is why we cannot understand our world without at least an idea, a framework, even if only a rough one, of migration. Generally speaking, international migrants head where they hope to find a better life and a better future. In this sense, they represent a sort of positive recognition of the countries they are headed for, and also a negative recognition of the countries they come from. Migrant numbers, in short, function somewhat like a litmus test—in the sense that they give us a pulse on the health or illness of various regions of the world.

Did the data and numbers provide you with any surprising information that you didn't expect?

"Actually, the data provided a lot of surprising information. I'll mention just two. The first: in China, a country with 1.4 billion inhabitants, there are just 1.5 million migrants, or just over one migrant for every thousand inhabitants. In Germany, which has less than 85 million inhabitants, there are 16.8 million migrants, representing 20 percent of the population. In China, there is one foreigner for every 1,000 inhabitants; in Germany, there are 200 foreigners for every 1,000 inhabitants. Proportionately, there are 200 times as many foreigners in Germany as in China."

And the second one?

The second: Western Europe has overtaken the United States, both in terms of the absolute number of migrants residing in the two regions and in terms of the proportion of migrants within their respective populations. Today, there are 16.4 international migrants for every 100 inhabitants in Western Europe (comprising Northern, Southern, and Continental Europe—but excluding Eastern Europe) and 15.2 international migrants for every 100 inhabitants in the United States. This is a historic overtaking, especially considering the significance of emigration to the United States over the centuries.

Is there a Promised Land for migrants?

"Well, from what I just said in the previous question, it follows that if we can speak of a Promised Land for migrants, it is today identified more with Europe than with America. Furthermore, it should be noted that of the 12 countries in the world that had more than 6 million international migrants at the end of 2024, 5 are European: Germany, England, France, Spain, and Italy—which ranks last among these 12 countries."

What does the migration phenomenon represent for advanced countries like Italy?

The populations of virtually all the most advanced countries, which are also almost entirely Western countries, have long suffered from a very low birth rate, which the many and varied pro-natalist measures fail to address. Thus, without migration, not only would these countries be condemned to lose many inhabitants, but also the workers who contribute to their wealth, as well as the taxpayers whose taxes support the services enjoyed by their citizens (schools, hospitals, transportation, etc.) and the pensions of those who leave their jobs. Naturally, policies to manage migrant flows are needed to avoid conflict, but without them we would have no future.