“The new Arab empire”: in Federico Rampini's book the great changes of recent years

If we talk about the Middle East we immediately think of the Israeli-Palestinian tragedy or the war in Syria. In the Middle Eastern area, however, there are other phenomena that are right to consider. The main one is the rapid evolution taking place in Saudi Arabia, which extends the experiments already started in Dubai or Qatar on a larger scale. That area between the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea is, in fact, a gigantic development site, attracting a boom in investments and foreign companies, including Italian ones. And it welcomes new flows of entrepreneurs, tourists, students and researchers. But what's behind it?

Federico Rampini tells us about it in his latest essay entitled "The new Arab empire" (Solferino, 2024, Euro 18, pp. 272. Also Ebook), starting from a surprising factor for us Westerners: one of the keys to Arabia's current momentum Saudi is the ongoing secularization, which reduces the powers of the Islamic clergy, liberalizes customs and improves women's rights. This does not mean that Arabia has become the paradise of democracy. It remains an authoritarian regime (on which the guard must remain high) but it wants to relaunch its global role, mindful of what was the golden age of its civilization. And it seems to emerge from anti-Israeli victimhood by breaking the chain of hatred towards the West (and its financing) which has led to the spread of Jihad and fanatical violence. In short, as Rampini writes in the book: «We must hold back before embracing Manichaean worldviews, crusades that pit the forces of Good and Evil. Arabia deserves to be studied rather than exorcised."

Why does this great country deserve our utmost and impartial attention?

«In Italy, when we talk about Arabia, I hear the answer: it is the country of oil and human rights abuses such as the murder of Khashoggi. With these two stereotypes the discussion is closed. Mistake. On oil, the Saudis have a more realistic vision than our environmentalists: they want to decarbonize but they know that we will need fossil energy for a long time to come. Among other reasons, there is no other way to produce fertilizers, without which agricultural production would collapse and half of humanity would starve. However, Saudi is a big investor in solar, wind, hydrogen energy. As for human rights, it remains an authoritarian and despotic regime but it has decisively improved the rights of half of its population: women."

What are the biggest changes in recent years?

«I describe spectacular changes by comparing two of my trips: in 2017 following Donald Trump, then this year. In seven years the country is unrecognizable. Women no longer have to go around veiled, they can travel alone, they are much better off than Iranians. The clergy counts less, the religious police has disappeared. Economic modernization is proceeding apace, including diversification to reduce the importance of oil. Tourism was once limited to Muslim pilgrims, today everyone is welcome to visit the country. The taboo on its pre-Islamic civilizations such as the Nabataeans of AlUla has also fallen."

Can Saudi promote stability in the Middle East?

«It's his ambition. He supported the Abraham Accords with which other countries in the area recognized Israel. Saudi would also like to do it. It is to undermine this process of détente that Iran and Hamas wanted the massacre of 7 October 2023. If there is any hope for a ceasefire in Gaza, a reconstruction of the Strip, a peace based on two states , it is clear that Riyadh's role will be central in all of this."

Can Saudi be a stable partner for the West?

«In the long journeys that I recount in my book, I was often asked the mirrored and reversed question from the Arab world: can and does the West want to be a stable partner for the Arab world? They consider Europe irrelevant on a geopolitical, strategic and military level, even if European and Italian companies are very present in Arabia. They see America as wavering and unpredictable. They mock our apocalyptic and adolescent environmentalism; they hate our moralism. For these and other reasons they prefer to keep their feet in two or three brackets, they take care of good relations with China and Russia".

How great is the risk of a military confrontation between Arabia and Iran?

«I will also tell you about another great trip I took to Iran as well as other visits to the Gulf, Qatar and the Emirates. I continually make comparisons between Arabia and Iran, the two historical rivals. The title of my book naturally alludes to ancient history, to the fact that there are three local empires that have always been competing for hegemony over the Middle East: the Arab, the Persian-Iranian, the Turkish-Ottoman. Ever since Iran became a Shiite theocracy under Khomeini in 1979, it has given itself three explicit and official objectives: to destroy the State of Israel; kick America out of the Middle East; finally conquer the two sacred places of Islam, Mecca and Medina. There is therefore a very explicit objective regarding Saudi Arabia on the part of Tehran, and I will explain all the possible implications."