Sardinia will likely experience a warmer and drier winter than usual , with less precipitation between December and February . The expected anomaly is between 1 and 2 degrees, but it is currently impossible to estimate how likely this will be.

The medium- and long-range weather models used by ARPAS, the Regional Environmental Protection Agency, confirm a late autumn , with the rainy season shifting from September to mid-October . This week, average temperatures and rainfall 10-30 millimeters below normal are expected, according to forecasts by ARPAS meteorologist Pier Luigi Trudu.

Normal precipitation is possible from October 26th to November 2nd, but it is too early to estimate its intensity and extent . ARPAS (National Agency for Environmental Protection) does not extend its forecast beyond five days. Regarding seasonal temperatures, for November, December, and January, the models indicate a 70 to 100% probability that temperatures will fall in the highest part of the climatic distribution, the so-called upper tercile, meaning values significantly above average.

Regarding precipitation, November is expected to be normal or slightly drier, December less rainy, while January could be close to seasonal norms or slightly lower. February, however, is expected to see less rain. These are trends, the meteorologist points out, not certainties.

What is more worrying is the high sea temperature, which could contribute to the formation of intense and violent storms, a phenomenon linked to global warming.

(Unioneonline)

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