First document on economics and finance for Meloni: watchword prudence
Estimates: growth in 2023 is around 1%, deficit towards 4.5%. But the unknowns between now and the end of the year remain many
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The programmatic growth will reach 1% in 2023 and the deficit will settle at 4.5%.
These are the new estimates of the Government which in today's Def will assume a trend scenario which sees the GDP at 0.9% and the deficit at 4.35%, still high compared to the fateful 3% but down compared to previous estimates.
For 2024, GDP, again within the programmatic framework, will be more substantial (+1.4%) and debt will settle at "over 3%" . In the meantime, the debt will continue a slow reduction process until it settles "in 2025 at 140.9%".
With the risk of recession having been archived for the moment, the government will present a plan based on caution with the first economic and financial document signed by Giorgia Meloni and Giancarlo Giorgetti.
That 4.5% deficit would remain in the programmatic framework, to start designing a space for action (2-3 billion per hour) for the economic policy choices that will be adopted with the next manoeuvre. Immediately after the launch of the Def, the Economy Minister will fly to Washington for the week of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund . Global growth is also affected by geopolitical tensions, as will emerge from the spring meetings of the World Bank and the IMF which will release spring forecasts tomorrow.
The world economy - the director general of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva has already anticipated - will grow by less than 3% in 2023: economic activity is slowing down in the United States and in the euro area, where interest rates think about demand. And precisely low growth “makes it more difficult to reduce poverty, heal the scars of the Covid crisis and offer new and better opportunities for everyone”.
However, Italy will continue to grow, according to the government, despite the various uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine, the overheating of consumer prices driven by energy prices, with oil prices soaring recently after the OPEC+ decision to cut the production of crude oil precisely to stop the fall in international prices. An overall situation that continues to push central banks to tighten the cost of money by raising interest rates.
Another tile could complicate the growth path for Italy: the Stability Pact from January 2024 should be reactivated after the suspension due to the pandemic. Despite an indication from Brussels of a debt reduction of 0.5% per year, Germany is pushing for a double commitment: 1% per year . Negotiations are underway, together with the parallel game that Rome is playing on Pnrr funds, which if misused would not guarantee the economic boost.
(Unioneonline/D)
