An aging island, a declining youth population, and an education system called upon to reinvent itself.

This is the complex picture that emerged at Sa Manifattura in Cagliari, where institutions, academia, and research discussed the future of education and universities in Sardinia, starting with an analysis by Iares-Acli.

The meeting, moderated by Francesco Pitirra, opened with a speech by Crei-Acli President Mauro Carta and included remarks by Regional Councilor for Public Education Ilaria Portas and the rectors of the Universities of Cagliari and Sassari, Francesco Mola and Gavino Mariotti. The discussion focused on data from the new IARES study, presented by Scientific Director Vania Statzu, which focuses on university migration, school dropout, and the island's educational prospects.

The research begins with an alarming statistic: Sardinia is the region with the lowest percentage of children aged 0 to 14 in Italy, at just 10.1%. Projections are clear: by 2050, the total population could decline by 21%, but the most drastic decline will be among young people aged 19 to 25, expected to decline by 62% compared to 2005. This statistic seriously jeopardizes generational turnover and the island's economic and social future.

Adding to this scenario is the resurgence of emigration : since 2014, over 17,000 Sardinians have left Italy to move abroad. Among them, a significant portion are young, and while over half have a low level of education, more than one in five has a tertiary education. This is a loss of human capital that Sardinia is struggling to compensate for.

The focus of the analysis is on schools. In Sardinia, school dropout rates remain higher than the national average: 14.5% of young people between the ages of 18 and 24 leave the education system early, compared to 9.8% in the rest of Italy. The island is second to last in terms of high school graduates in the 20-24 age bracket and has a NEET rate of 17.8%, still above the national average.

But the most worrying figure is the so-called "implicit" dropout rate : nearly half of middle school students do not achieve adequate literacy skills, and over 57% show deficiencies in mathematics. These percentages are well above national figures, which indicate that educational qualifications are often not accompanied by solid skills.

The consequences are directly reflected in employment. In Sardinia, employment rates are 80.9% for college graduates, but drop to 60.3% for those with a high school diploma and plummet to below 47% for those with only a middle school diploma. Education and employment, once again, are closely intertwined.

In this difficult context, Sardinian universities represent a positive note.

Despite the population decline, the 2024-2025 academic year saw an increase in enrollments: 4,368 new students enrolled at the University of Cagliari and 2,009 at Sassari. The overall number of students also increased, thanks to the increased attractiveness of universities and the increase in international students.

The 2025 Censis rankings confirm the quality of the island's university system: Cagliari is fifth among Italy's large state universities, excelling in scholarships and services. Sassari ranks fourth among medium-sized universities, with the highest national score for facilities.

"A distinctive feature is the right to education: Sardinia has managed to finance 100% of students eligible for scholarships, with over 11,000 recipients, and guarantees a higher percentage of housing than the national average. This is an almost unique achievement in the Italian landscape," says Vania Statzu. "Universities are holding up, but the real critical point remains schools. Without strengthening basic education, Sardinia risks continuing to lose young people, skills, and opportunities."

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