“All parties wanted the government to fall. Berlusconi? It has seven lives "

«The break between the Democratic Party and Calenda? Nothing strange. It was to be expected that it would end like this. Even if it is not excluded that in the next few hours there may be other upheavals ». The economist Stefano Zamagni, former president of the Agency for the third sector, now at the head of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, is one of the greatest theorists of the social economy. He also knows the political dynamics well: in October 2020 he contributed to the birth of “Insieme”, a Catholic-inspired movement with roots in the center.

Professor, how will it end?

«Difficult to make predictions. This situation is the result of the chaos wanted by all parties ».

What does it mean?

«It is evident that the fall of the Draghi government was wanted by all political forces, none excluded. With the difference that some have exposed themselves personally and openly. Others have let the picture degenerate. What need was there to bring down the Draghi government seven months before the natural expiration date? ».

Therefore, a transversal desire to hunt Dragons.

«All the parties were afraid of undergoing a process of delegitimization. They could not tolerate the natural expiry of the legislature. There was a risk of losing positions in the face of the authority of an executive formed by competent people. We looked for the Pierino on duty, the one who throws the stone into the dovecote, the Cinquestelle. If the Democratic Party had wanted to avoid the elections, it could have done so ".

How do you see the post-vote scenarios?

«I see a right-right ahead. It is true that Forza Italia is a center party, but today it is too fragile to oppose the right. Unless FI manages to reach 20% as Berlusconi promised. He said: by taking the field I can double the consensus. It can also happen, I don't rule it out. Someone laughs. Berlusconi has seven lives ».

The right-right triumphs in the elections ...

«I want to make an objective analysis, without being conditioned by my beliefs. A right-right government, if this hypothesis does not occur, poses serious mortgages on the future of our country under various aspects: economic, social and at the level of international politics ».

Let's start from the last point.

«Our Western partners, let us not be under any illusions, would not accept a right-right government. We know how Americans behave when they don't accept a certain line. They intervene decisively. Not with military force, mind you, but with the weapons of the economy. We depend on the United States, a strong dependence with everything that goes with it ».

The social aspect.

«The right-right is strong in the defense of values that are typical of the Italian and Catholic cultural traditions. I am thinking of the Zan bill and the law on the end of life, issues on which the Democratic Party has been very exposed. What will happen to them? It is easy to imagine the social clash that could be created in the country on these points ».

Finally, the economy.

«The spread, technically, is the differential between German bunds and Italian bonds. What does this gap actually measure? The degree of trust. It is clear that if the right-right wins, at least in the short term, the spread will increase. For this Giorgia Meloni reassures. In case of victory, he indicated, as ministers, Tremonti, who offers guarantees to international markets, and Cingolani to underline that there will be no interruptions in the ecological transition. Trust is the only prerequisite for curbing financial speculation ».

Pessimist?

“I am naturally optimistic. I trust in the ability of Italians to come out of conflicts unscathed. I think the original sin was bipolarism. Italy cannot be governed with a bipolar system. Those who know political science know that the bipolar system in Italy cannot work ».

Will the economy hold up?

«The Italian economy is in good condition. The real economy is made up of factories, laboratories, fields, ideas. We mustn't feel sorry for ourselves. We have to flag ourselves because we are fools. I want to remember the writer Antonio Genovesi, Neapolitan, professor of Economics, who lived in the 1700s. I recall his words: "If a people wants to maintain their freedom and their ability to live, they must not be dependent on any country". Very timely words in the face of the developments of the war in Ukraine ».

Which road should Sardinia take?

«The Sardinians must regain awareness of their extraordinary culture and regain confidence in their possibilities. The best brains don't have to leave the Island. The conditions must be created to prevent them from escaping. Only in this way is Sardinia able to restart ».

Massimiliano Rais