Donald Trump ushers in a new era of America First with so-called reciprocal tariffs against 92 countries, with the pendulum swinging from 10% for the United Kingdom to 50% for India and Brazil. The trade divide is changing globally, also reshaping trade with Europe, still hanging on the Turnberry handshake, without a formal text to secure the 15% rate, with the exemption puzzle still to be resolved and internal discontent among member states. For the White House, the line is drawn: those who don't comply, pay. Those who invest, are saved. This is the case with Apple, which, with an announcement of $100 billion in new investments in the United States (in addition to the $500 billion already planned), managed to escape the blacklist.

A carefully considered move by CEO Tim Cook, marking a strategic realignment to the tycoon's reshoring imperative: bringing key production of iPhones, MacBooks, and other devices back home, away from supply chains in China, Vietnam, and India. "Another victory for American industry," Washington exulted, touting a tariff strategy that "has already catalyzed trillions of dollars in new investment."

The new protectionist crackdown of the second Trump era will take shape on August 7th with differentiated tariffs that, like Europe, will also hit Japan at 15%. Canada will find itself faced with a 35% tariff, and Switzerland's fate is even more bitter, hit by a 39% tariff. A shock that Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter tried to avert at the last minute with a diplomatic mission to Washington, accompanied by Swiss business leaders, starting with big pharma Roche. The meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio was described as "friendly," but no breakthrough appears on the horizon. The heaviest blow, however, remains the one inflicted on India and Brazil. So much so that Brasilia—which has been in the crosshairs for the tycoon's "ferocious" trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro for the 2022 coup attempt—has decided to take the matter to the WTO.

Delhi, on the other hand, is paying the price for its complicity with Moscow, with a blow that will ultimately affect Apple's production lines still operating on the subcontinent. Like Cupertino, the fate of the European Turnberry Pact also depends on the promises of investment in US energy and industry—worth over a trillion euros. Brussels has long held out hope that Washington would approve the joint document, giving initial shape to the 15% agreement before the new tariffs, which will maintain the 50% rate on steel and aluminum, come into effect. But the climate in recent hours has appeared anything but encouraging, with diplomatic sources calling the negotiations "exhausting."

While the tycoon's new executive order on EU autos, which will lower tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, will likely take "a few more days," pressure remains high for exemptions. The only areas that appear to be already sealed concern aircraft and components, a selection of generic drugs, and high-tech machinery such as those for microchip production. Exemptions for the agri-food and wine and spirits sectors, the flagship of European and Italian exports, are still being negotiated. The government "will do everything possible to defend its national interests," Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reiterated, noting that many Italian products "are not replaceable by US counterparts because they are unique." This argument is further reinforced by the warning issued directly to Trump by 57 US alcohol industry organizations—which also represent continental brands Campari, Pernod Ricard, and Diageo—members of the Toasts Not Tariffs Coalition: the 15% tariffs on European wine and spirits, they estimate, risk wiping out $2 billion in exports and jeopardizing 25,000 jobs in the United States.

(Unioneonline)

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