Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" leaves the Milan Stock Exchange plummeting for the third consecutive session with losses, then recovered to -5.18% at the close, up to over 7%. And the uncertainty makes the spread soar above 130, the highest in November: investors do not understand the invitation of politics to avoid "alarmism" and fear for Italy's growth, particularly exposed to exports to the USA, with the Def to be published soon that will have to make a downward revision compared to the September estimates. And deal with the economic categories that are asking for help.

Bankitalia and Confindustria had already anticipated a growth of just 0.6%, halved compared to the 1.2% of the Structural Budget Plan. An assessment that does not take into account the effects of trade retaliation, uncertainties, Europe's response with a negotiation that is just beginning. There is a special observation that is the Chinese yuan, where a devaluation by Beijing in response to Trump's 34% duties would give a dramatic twist to the trade war. And there is the impoverishment effect for families with Piazza Affari in free fall, weighed down by the strong weight of the banks that have lost 12%.

The EU summit

Meanwhile, the first meeting of the 27 ministers on the duties imposed by Donald Trump relaunches an "unexpected" unity of the EU member countries. The preferred line remains that of negotiation. Indeed, an offer is already on the table of the White House: to reciprocally apply zero tariffs on industrial goods. It is an offer made well before April 2, so far in vain. And this is where the other side of the EU strategy comes in: the green light for the first counter-duties, which will start on April 15 with tariffs on American products up to 25% , as (according to Ansa) can be read in the draft document of the Commission. Most of the tariffs are at 25% but for several categories the duties will be at 10%.

The Trade Council meeting served first and foremost to outline the image of a united Europe, confident in its means, aware that the duties, for Trump, risk being an own goal. A first concrete result has been achieved: the political green light to the list of counter-duties decided by the Commission on March 12, as a response to the American tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The list is split into two tranches: the first, minority one, will come into force on April 15. A second, more substantial one, will be operational on May 15. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who flew to Luxembourg precisely because of the sensitivity of the dossier, tried the postponement card. But for the vast majority of the 27 and for the Berlaymont Palace, the die is cast. "A postponement is impossible, we will follow the legal procedure", underlined the EU Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic. From now until May 15, however, there is an eternity. And it is in this period of time that Brussels will seek a negotiated solution.

"We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods, as we have successfully done with many other trading partners, because Europe is always ready for a good deal," announced Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Brussels' move primarily concerns six sectors: cars, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, plastics, rubber, machinery. And it is a hand that remains outstretched, although Washington has not yet wanted to shake it. The offer would revolutionize the EU-US market by reviving the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) that ended up in the drawer in 2016 after long controversies. The support of the 27, at least in these initial stages, would seem to be there, Italy included.

Trump's Melons

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is convinced of the usefulness of flying to Washington as soon as possible to address the issue of duties directly with Donald Trump. However, it would not be a solitary rush forward by Italy, which supports the EU in negotiations with the US. Antonio Tajani also made this clear at the European Foreign Affairs Council: the appointment at the White House could be confirmed shortly, and should be set for the beginning of next week, before the trip to Rome of the American vice president JD Vance.

Meloni is reportedly pushing to meet Trump, also because there is a strong feeling within her government that space is opening up for negotiations between the two sides of the Atlantic. The negative reactions of the markets are evident and persist everywhere. In the United States, protests are mounting against the president's protectionist choices. And in Europe there is "a majority position to advance a negotiation", explained Tajani, fresh from the summit in Luxembourg where, he assured, "the aggressive response proposed by France was not put on the table".

(Online Union)

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