With Donald Trump, the so-called pendulum politics may have found its most tangible expression: it swings frequently, and with unsatisfactory results, between different positions, alliances, or opposing orientations depending on the convenience of the moment, the balance of power, or external pressures.

Whether this is a deliberate strategy is difficult to say, and it likely isn't in the long or medium term. "Suddenly" is probably the temporal shift that best represents it. Tuesday, November 3, 2026, however, doesn't arrive suddenly, and American voters will be called to the polls to renew the federal Congress. On the horizon at the midterms are the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the 35 in the Senate, and the 36 governorships in as many states. But it certainly doesn't end there: the vote, however cast, will inevitably crystallize an index of approval for Donald Trump's policies.

A potential, and highly probable, defeat would turn him into a "minus" in his final two years in the White House. Once his term expires, he will no longer be able to run for office, as is well known. To put it more bluntly, and without mincing words, the real risk is that the Republican Party will lose control of Congress. The consequence of this is that, if Democrats were to secure majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Donald Trump would have to govern during the final two years of his term with a Congress heavily controlled by the opposition. This would make it extremely difficult to pass certain legislative initiatives and would allow Democrats to exert greater control over the Executive Branch.

While it's difficult to even argue that the current White House incumbent will likely be removed from office, Trump's removal would not automatically lead to the departure of all members of his government nor would the Democrats assume the presidency, which would likely be handed over to J.D. Vance. What's important is that Donald Trump's second term has weighed heavily on historic alliances, including Italy, which generally over the years appear to have even shaped domestic policies based on overseas fluctuations and, in the current context, appear to have influenced economic and political/international instability. It might not be wrong to argue that even the Meloni government has suffered negative repercussions from its "friendship" with the current American president. Perhaps to the point (the doubtful formula is in order) that determining whether he will be re-elected, as desired by those who voted for his majority parties, is far from simple.

Too many variables are difficult to predict: for example, the war in Ukraine, which has not only overturned the American perspective and with it the political direction, but also gradually increased opposition among the Italian population to sending further weapons; the complex socioeconomic situation, which has undermined the daily lives of families who are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet; and the immigration issue, which generally, inevitably impacts perceived and/or actual internal security with more or less obvious and tangible costs.

Paradoxically, one might argue that the possibility of a government crisis is nearly impossible, given the legacy of complications the current government would leave to the next one, which would begin its term with its weapons blunted, so to speak, and with an ever-evolving international situation. Moreover, Giorgia Meloni's leadership is still out of the question, and neither the League nor Forza Italia would gain any concrete advantage from a possible weakening of the Prime Minister's position.

The categorical imperative would seem to be the best management of the situation in the Middle East, where Italy, and with it Europe, cannot continue to be influenced by the US Presidency. Peace must be achieved immediately on every war and conflict front to restore political and economic stability.

The American midterm elections, and their outcomes, must not negatively impact European policies, which are already severely strained. A divided European Union cannot respond: unity in diversity allows it to independently negotiate both with Vladimir Putin's Russia to discuss peace terms beyond unrealistic intentions, and with Iran to foster stability and energy rebalancing.

Giuseppina Di Salvatore – Lawyer, Nuoro

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