Duties, "dramatic effects" for the Island: even small shops in the villages are at risk
According to a study by the EFBS Observatory, the tariffs announced by the US will have very serious repercussions on Sardinian SMEs.
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The introduction of a 30% tariff on European products by the United States starting August 1st – as announced by US President Donald Trump – would lead to a reduction in Italian exports to the States of 12.4 billion euros, with a negative impact of over 1 billion from Southern Italy , putting approximately 150,000 jobs at risk.
This is the estimate – based on Svimez data – contained in a study by the "Evolution Forum Business School on SMEs" Observatory on a panel of over 2,000 micro and small entrepreneurs (i.e. with a turnover of up to 1 million euros and fewer than 5 employees).
And, according to the study, "such a drastic application of tariffs would have a dramatic effect on the entire economy, but the Southern regions would lose the most GDP, primarily Sardinia , Calabria, Sicily and Puglia."
Trump's letter to the European Union leadership —it is emphasized—has caused considerable concern for Italian SMEs, especially those in the South. Indeed, if US-EU tariffs were set at 30%, more than one in two Italian small and medium-sized entrepreneurs estimate it would be a catastrophe, with losses of up to 36% on their companies' turnover by the end of the year. However, if tariffs were set at 10%, they could still be saved . And the uncertainty of the exhausting negotiations between the US and the EU certainly doesn't help the recovery.
For this reason, «the level of concern remains very high and those who will suffer the most, according to the leaders of our SMEs, will be everyone, but above all the companies in the South (45%) and in particular, as mentioned, those in the Island, Calabria, Sicily and Puglia».
According to the study's estimates , "small local shops (32.5%) will be most affected and risk closing their doors forever, while large-scale retail trade and large European chains (15%) will be able to defend themselves."
According to research conducted by the EFBS Observatory, if tariffs were to rise to 30%, more than half of Italian entrepreneurs (55%) estimated a loss of approximately 36% of their turnover: "A real catastrophe for Italian SMEs."
The loss, EFBS continues, will still be 18% if tariffs were instead set at a more lenient 10% on EU products (52.5%). In a climate of total uncertainty, also caused by the exhausting negotiations between the US and the EU, virtually no one wants to go further and believes it could halve the turnover of the company they work for (less than 1%).
For SMEs, "everyone will suffer because trade is global" – this is the response of 46% of those interviewed – but small businesses, and therefore local shops, will suffer more (32.5%) than the large supermarket chains present throughout Europe (15%).
A good portion of the sample also gives weight to the sector they belong to and responds: «A lot will depend on the product sector affected by the duties» (15%).
However, there will be no difference in the impact between shops in the suburbs and those in the city centers of Italian cities (55%). A primary solution hoped for by small and medium-sized Italian entrepreneurs is "customer loyalty through targeted measures": this view was shared by 83.5% of those interviewed by the EFBS Observatory.
(Unioneonline/lf)
