In the summer of 2026, the Sardinian economy is showing signs of resilience, exceeding the national average. Despite an extremely complex geopolitical and international trade environment, the island's productive system is holding its own with an estimated GDP growth of 1.1% , a figure that exceeds both the national average (+0.5%) and that of Southern Italy (+0.7%). This, in summary, is the finding of the report "Navigating Uncertainty: Summer 2026 Trends for the Sardinian Economy and Businesses," produced by the Research Department of Confartigianato Sardegna , which analyzed trends between March 2025 and May 2026 using data from Istat, the Ministry of Labor, Svimez, and the Bank of Italy.

The study, however, also highlights how this dynamism is "threatened" by three critical fronts: the return of inflation, an unprecedented credit crunch, and a struggling labor market, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

"Sardinia is a two-speed industry," comments Giacomo Meloni, Regional President of Confartigianato Sardegna, "because on the one hand, we have a GDP growth of 1.1%, outperforming the rest of the country and Southern Italy, demonstrating the extraordinary resilience of our manufacturing sector. On the other hand, however," Meloni continues, "this growth is occurring within an international complex that passes the costs directly onto our businesses' bills and production costs."

The analysis shows that the shadow of the Hormuz crisis looms over inflation and energy costs. Indeed, in May 2026, consumer prices began to rise again, marking a 3.2% increase in Sardinia compared to the same period in 2025, in line with the national figure. The main driver of these increases is the rising cost of fuel and energy .

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which lasted between February and June 2026, caused electricity and gas prices on the island to soar by 5.1% .

Access to credit also remains challenging, with the cost of financing at an all-time low. Comparing March 2025 with March 2026, the interest rate applied to small businesses in Sardinia reached 10.6%, the highest rate recorded among all 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces. This situation, exacerbated by the ECB rate hike in June 2026, has led to a 3.3% annual contraction in lending to Sardinian SMEs , a decline that has continued uninterrupted since December 2022.

Craft businesses are experiencing an even more severe squeeze, with lending declining by 5.3%. Compared to June 2022, when the previous phase of monetary tightening began, by March 2026 Sardinia faced a credit cost gap of 150 basis points, compared to the national average of 191 basis points.

Critical issues are also evident in the labor market : both sides of the coin point to a decline in employed workers while the number of self-employed workers is growing at the same rate. The first quarter of 2026 shows a declining employment situation. The employment rate on the island stands at 57.5%, a decline of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year (the fourth-highest decline in Italy). The situation in manufacturing (-18.7%) and construction (-12.5%) is particularly worrying. Conversely, there are signs of vibrancy in self-employment, which is growing by 6.8%. The difficulty in recruiting staff remains, albeit slightly improving: 38.3% of the positions sought by Sardinian companies are hard to find.

Labor demand is also declining in the accommodation, food service, and tourism sector, which accounts for 39% of expected revenue in the summer quarter. Companies are planning 4.5% fewer hires in this sector compared to summer 2025. The latest data, however, show labor demand rising by 0.6%, driven by an increase in expected hiring in the manufacturing sector (+13.4%) and in accommodation and food service. Demand for tourism services is also rising by 4.4%.

(Unioneonline/lf)

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