They know who you are, where you are, what your interests are, if you have a predisposition to spend. And they get to “understand” what your needs might be. They are called algorithms: complex computer systems that, mixed with artificial intelligence, determine the prices of airline tickets searched for online. Result: for the same route you can come across a purchase proposal with a price even double compared to the standard rate. It happens based on subjective parameters: for example, the model of device used, whether smartphone or PC, has an impact. But general factors also count – and more intuitive – such as the season, the timing of the booking compared to the travel date, the load factor of the aircraft and the number of requests for a given destination. Power, and disadvantages, of dynamic pricing, the model used by companies to maximize profits in an unregulated market. It applies to airplanes, but also (less so) to ships. The mechanism is complex but the consumer is not completely defenseless: there are tools and tricks that allow the trip to be made at the lowest possible cost.

How they work

Ticket prices change in real time. To understand why, you need to know how some parameters work. Pricing continually evolves based on internal factors (the company's marketing strategies) and external factors (consumer behavior, market, competition). It starts with data collection based on Big Data, Machine Learning and AI. The system analyses the amount of demand (how many people are searching for or booking a specific flight), supply (the number of seats available), and studies the booking history (past trends for that route in a given period). But it also evaluates user behaviour and their profile. Thanks to cookies, it is aware of any online searches and the length of stay on a given site. And it also has information on the device used: a latest-generation phone could be an indication of higher spending capacity. Even granting access to geolocation offers an element of analysis: a stable position in a given territory can lead to the deduction that a given trip, due to a lack of alternatives, is necessary, therefore the consumer can be "forced" to resort to that connection, even if the price does not prove to be advantageous. In addition, there is the general context. The first determining factor is competition: if other companies operate on the same route, the offer will take their presence into account. The more seats there are, the lower the price will be: on the contrary, the ticket will be more expensive when the availability of another carrier is exhausted. And this becomes easier on the basis of further external factors. It is not only the high holiday season (summer) or the imminence of long weekends (Easter or Christmas) that have an impact. Events at the destination, such as concerts or major sports competitions, and the weather conditions of the period also have an impact. And then yes, the cost of fuel also has an impact: a cause that seems residual, but not too much, which has effects on the entire market.

The profiling

How can a consumer who wants to travel without being fleeced protect himself? Some dynamics are independent of his will and are determined by the banal mechanism of supply/demand. But there are some tools, less superficial than they may seem. Anonymous browsing, first of all: it is used to prevent cookies (better to eliminate non-essential ones) from recording searches. It is also useful to eliminate browsing data before each operation. Geolocalization is relevant. Some proposals vary depending on the IP address: the connection from a country with low purchasing power can generate offers at lower prices. The use of a virtual private network (such as NordVpn or ExpressVpn, easy to use) can make the operations appear as if they were carried out from abroad. Another trick to circumvent profiling is to use an account other than your own, if you have joined loyalty programs of some companies that keep in memory the passenger's preferences and past. Some specialized sites also recommend using smartphones or PCs that are not the latest generation. It has been shown, for example, that offers vary based on the operating system: iOS “costs” more than Android.

Strategic booking

The system “senses” whether the trip is for work or pleasure. In the first case, the need is more stringent and you are more inclined to spend. If you do not have particular constraints on days and times, for planes and ships, it is advisable to plan during “tired” times and less susceptible to increases. The hottest days for bookings are weekends and Mondays: it is better to opt for midweek dates. As for the search time, the least busy is the night time, between midnight and 6: this is the time slot where it is most likely that offers will be inserted. As long as you have the possibility, searching for flexible dates is advantageous: the algorithm penalizes those who focus on a single day. Furthermore, for the same destination city, there may be multiple airports, served by different companies: this alternative must be carefully evaluated also based on the availability, frequency and costs of subsequent connections on land. A complete mapping of the options is offered by platforms (Skyscanner and Google Flights the most famous) that compare the various options available at the time of the search. And while it is often advantageous to consult well in advance of the travel dates, those with margins can play the last minute card: if the plane is not full, the companies offer the available seats at reduced prices. Because the logic is only one: maximum profit.

Enrico Fresu

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