Employment is growing in Sardinia, but the quality of work isn't. This, in short, is the picture emerging from the new CNA Sardegna study, "Sardinia at Work: Analysis and Market Scenarios Between Innovation, AI, and New Skills."

Between 2021 and 2024, employed people increased by almost 30,000 units, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.2%, the lowest in the last 50 years .

Behind the positive numbers, however, lies a fragile and unbalanced reality: most of the new jobs are concentrated in low-productivity sectors, often seasonal and precarious.

The percentage of employed people in the 20-64 age group rose from 57% to 62% , but in the same period Sardinia recorded one of the most modest performances in Italy, surpassing only three regions.

The regional labor market is still heavily anchored to traditional models, with a production system lacking innovation, low competitiveness, and a poor ability to retain talent.

In ten years, the working-age population has shrunk by 118,000. This figure is set to worsen: by 2035, another 122,000 will be lost, with an estimated decline of 76,000 people in employment. This trend is exacerbated by the flight of educated young people: one in five graduates is working steadily outside Sardinia within five years of graduation.

Meanwhile, the region also holds the record for school dropouts: 17.5% of young people leave the education system early, often without qualifications. On the business side, productivity is declining: on average, over the last three years, a thousand euros have been lost per employee.

Eighty-one percent of hours worked are concentrated in sectors below the national average productivity threshold (72%). This places Sardinia fourth-to-last among Italian regions in terms of labor efficiency.

Technology could change everything. According to the study's estimates, the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence could generate up to €5 billion in additional GDP (+12.8%), but would also lead to the potential loss of 60,000 jobs if not accompanied by adequate training and retraining policies.

"The structure of the Sardinian labor market is a cause for concern in a period of rapid technological acceleration," say Francesco Porcu and Daniele Tomasi of the CNA. "We need to abandon the logic of temporary bonuses and blanket incentives and focus on stable, structural investment across the entire education and vocational training chain."

According to CNA Sardegna, with the same costs and hours worked, the Sardinian business system could increase its added value by 25%, generating up to €9 billion more in GDP if operating at full potential. This estimate shows how much can still be done to reverse the trend.

But without a long-term vision, the risk is that today's positive numbers will turn into the illusion of progress that, in reality, doesn't touch the foundations of the island's economic system: innovation, stability, education, and attractiveness.

(Unioneonline/Fr.Me.)

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