Sunday's regional elections in Sardinia provided some fairly precise indications for the national parties, also because the absolute number of voters in the last three electoral rounds did not change excessively: 790,709 (53.78% of those eligible) in 2019 ; 713,789 (53.17%) at the 2022 elections, 751,296 (51.9%) last Sunday.
The vote maps elaborated by YouTrend show that the constituency in which Truzzu has the greatest advantage over Todde is Olbia-Tempio (56.4% Truzzu vs 37.9% Todde), while the one in which Todde has the greatest advantage over Truzzu is Cagliari (49.3% Todde vs 41.2% Truzzu).
If we look at the vote in the capitals, we see an advantage of Todde over Truzzu of between 15 and 20 points in the two main municipalities, namely Cagliari and Sassari , and 21 points in Nuoro , the city where Todde resides. In Oristano , however, Truzzu won with a 6-point advantage over Todde. The first obtained 331,109 votes, 41 thousand more than those obtained (290,720) by all the lists that supported it. Conversely, Truzzu had fewer votes than those of the lists that supported him: 328,494 votes against 333,873 of the lists. The first party, the Democratic Party, which received 94,411 votes (13.8%) on Sunday, had obtained 128,438 (18.74) in the 2022 elections, but a series of lists present in these regional elections expressed candidates within the lists Dem, like the 20,761 votes of the Progressives of Zedda, the 11,529 of the PSI, etc.
At the 2019 regional elections, the voters who chose the Dems were 96,235 (13.48). The results of M5s were decidedly more fluctuating, going from 69,573 votes (9.74%) in 2019 (when he ran alone), to 149,460 votes (21.80) in the 2022 elections, to fall back to the current 53,066 (7, 8%) to which can be added those from Todde's Civic list (27,261, equal to 4%), but which do not allow him to be the first party in the coalition.
In the centre-right, the reversal of the internal balance of power should be noted. In 2019 the League was chosen by 81,421 voters (11.40%), and another 70,000 (9.86) had opted for the Psd'Az. The two parties presented themselves together in the 2022 elections, obtaining 42,860 votes (6.25). On Sunday the League collapsed to 25,609 votes (3.7) and the Psd'Az stopped at 36,997 votes (5.4). Reverse fate for FdI, which in 2019 was chosen by 33,716 voters (4.72), to surge to 161,771 votes (23.60) in the 2022 elections, and then fall back to 93,122 votes (13.6), which places it in second placed, behind the Democratic Party, as the most voted party. In 2019, 57,430 voters opted for Forza Italia (8.04), in the 2022 elections there were 58,849 (8.58) and in the first round without Berlusconi there were 43.17 (6.3).
