Quirinale, Draghi or Mattarella? But the favorite is the outsider, whose name has not yet been mentioned
Whoever does not enter the totonomi often wins. Soon the Parliament in joint session will elect the new Head of State, only twice in history was he elected in the first 3 ballots in which a qualified majority is needed
From Berlusconi to Draghi, from Casini to Cartabia, from Amato to Prodi, from Segre to Casellati via Gianni Letta and - yes, he too - Sergio Mattarella.
Totonomi goes crazy for the next tenant of the Quirinale but, as often happens, the one that has more chances is the name that has not yet been mentioned.
At the beginning of January the Parliament will meet in joint session (together with three delegates from each Region, with the exception of Valle d'Aosta which has only one) to elect the President of the Republic. A vote that could also have important repercussions on the government and on the duration of the current legislature, given that among the candidates there is also the Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who in the case should leave Palazzo Chigi.
HOW THE ELECTION WORKS - The vote is secret. In the first three ballots the president is elected with a two-thirds majority, therefore there is a need for a broad agreement between the political forces. This has only happened twice in republican history: for Cossiga in 1985 and Ciampi in 1999. The first president of the Republic, Enrico De Nicola, also chosen on the first ballot, does not apply, because indicated by the Constituent Assembly to last a few months .
On all other occasions, the election it arrived from the fourth ballot onwards, when an absolute majority is enough. The longest was that of Giovanni Leone (1971), for which 23 ballots were required. The most voted? Sandro Pertini in 1978 obtained 83.6% of the votes but it took 16 ballots.
Both Napolitano and Mattarella were elected on the fourth ballot, by absolute majority.
THE NAMES - Let's start with the one around which the future of these legislatures hinges. Mario Draghi : a name on which the agreement would be all too easy, if he were not currently the tenant of Palazzo Chigi. Guarantor of the PNRR funds, of a transversal pact between the parties that would be very difficult without him. Almost everyone wants him to be prime minister until 2023, the year of politics. But there is the "Giorgetti theorem": the number 2 of the League explicitly said that Draghi can go to the Quirinale and manage the government game from there. With the current Minister of Economy Franco at Palazzo Chigi, some speculate. Giorgetti's idea is a "forcing" of the Constitution that not everyone likes.
Then there is Sergio Mattarella . The person concerned quoted Giovanni Leone ("He too asked for the President of the Republic not to be re-elected") to dismiss the hypothesis of his encore. The Constitution does not prohibit it, the only precedent at the moment is that of Giorgio Napolitano, who resigned a year after the start of his second term. What if in the end the current Head of State succumbed to the pressure of the parties? A name that still cannot be completely excluded, for two reasons. Everyone likes Mattarella, from right to left. And, above all, an encore of his could leave Draghi at Palazzo Chigi until the end of the legislature and at the same time pave the way for him to the Quirinale in the not too distant future. In fact, it is very likely that Mattarella, if re-elected, would resign after a year as did Giorgio Napolitano. Then there was the economic crisis and the spread to justify a second mandate, today there is the pandemic and the management of PNRR funds.
Silvio Berlusconi : the center-right made his name well in advance, and that's not a good sign. He hopes but doesn't seem to believe it too much. On the other hand, the name is divisive, certainly does not convince the center-left and the 5 Star Movement. However, in the event of a lack of agreement between the parties, the center-right with the help of Italia Viva could find the numbers to elect him to a great surprise. This was what many exponents of the center-left were referring to when, regarding the vote on the Zan bill, they spoke of "dress rehearsals" for the election of the President of the Republic.
Pierferdinando Casini : young, transversal, he can play his cards and has been working for this for years. A life in the center-right coalition, in 2018 he was elected to Parliament with Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party.
Giuliano Amato : good for all seasons, the Amato hypothesis always comes up every time there is a vacant institutional office to fill, so much so that there is even a satirical Facebook page called “the Amato hypothesis”. How many times has his name been mentioned for a possible government of broad agreements? Age (83 and a half years) does not play in his favor.
"I don't even think about it", said Romano Prodi , shot down by his own Pd and by the famous betrayal of the 101 on the occasion of the last election of the President of the Republic. he would also collect the votes of the 5 Star Movement. But if he did not make it seven years ago it is even more difficult for him to succeed today. "The ideal candidate is not the one with the most votes, but the one with the fewest vetoes", he said. said about the upcoming election.
Another name that circulates, not with much insistence (and this works in its favor) is that of Gianni Letta . Silvio Berlusconi's great weaver could take the votes of the centrists. And never forget that the secretary of the Democratic Party is his nephew.
Then there is the "woman option", which has nothing to do with the pension scheme. There were several appeals for the first woman to climb the Colle.
The one who has more possibilities is the much appreciated Marta Cartabia . Young (58 years old), transversal and with an important institutional profile, she was president of the Constitutional Court. Today he is Minister of Justice of the Draghi government, justice of which he has a totally different vision from that of Bonafede and the 5 Star Movement.
It is difficult for Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati to inspire it. Hers is among the female names that circulate, and it could not be otherwise given that it is the second position of the state. But it is far from transversal: due to its overly "Berlusconian" past it is not loved on the left.
Finally, Liliana Segre who, as a great lady, declined an appeal in her favor, saying she was not available: “I'm 91 years old and I don't have the skills”, cut short.
But as often happens, the one with the most chances is the outsider . The candidate whose name has not yet been given. The surprise card that appears suddenly, played from the fourth ballot onwards. So it was with Mattarella, pulled out like a wild card by Matteo Renzi while he now seemed light years away from the political life of the country. In the first three ballots he obtained 4 or 5 votes, in the fourth he obtained 665. The election of Oscar Luigi Scalfaro in 1992 was also similar.
