Zero growth in the third quarter, prices at their highest in over three years, and wages failing to keep pace. Istat confirms the difficulties faced by many families struggling with uncontrolled spending: preliminary data shows inflation in October reached 5.4%. Energy prices rose 31.4%. Bills on the regulated market rose even further, reaching 59.5%. Transportation costs rose 9.3%, and fresh food prices rose 7.5%. Such high inflation is the "dramatic consequence," in the words of Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, of the impact of the energy commodity wars. According to consumer associations, the blow is over €1,500 per family.

"Energy costs are a priority," Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reiterated. The budget will contain only structural measures on the energy front, which will require time to implement. However , starting January 1st, the bill decree could bring relief to families and businesses . The measure is expected to be approved by the Council of Ministers next week.

The issue is of concern to everyone, from the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, who sees citizens' standard of living "attacked" by inflation and insufficient wages , and who, speaking yesterday at World Savings Day, called for "protecting families", to the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, who for the first time is open to further increases in ECB interest rates , faced with the risk that the effects of inflation will worsen in the coming months and financing costs will rise.

The latest statistics also cast a shadow over the coming months. Such high inflation could leave a heavy burden on next year, estimated by Istat at around 2% during a press conference. This year, the institute's researchers explained, it was just 0.1%. Furthermore, the stagnation of GDP in the third quarter weighs on growth prospects for the entire year : the figure for 2026, which would be recorded in the event of zero changes in the final quarter, remains at 0.8%, according to the statistics office's calculations. According to several analyses, starting with that of Confesercenti, reaching the government's growth target of 1% is at risk . And the GDP trend in the third quarter—flat quarter-on-quarter and up 0.8% year-on-year—has dampened expectations of a continuation of the expansionary phase.

Regarding inflation, again according to Confesercenti, there are fears it could exceed 6% in the next two months, compromising Christmas sales. This would wipe out €1.4 billion in consumption in the last quarter. Confcom is particularly concerned that tensions in energy prices, and to a lesser extent in fresh food prices, are not abating and are starting to have marginal effects on other supply chains as well. Federdistribuzione, meanwhile, warns that large-scale retailers' efforts to keep prices "significantly lower" than ISTAT's shopping basket figures are unlikely to last long .

The acceleration in Italian inflation, from 4.2% in September to 5.4% in October, is exceptional among major European countries and places Italy at the top of the inflation rankings. In Spain, the rate is stable at 4.9%, in France it rises from 3.1% to 3.4%, and in Germany it falls from 3.3% to 2.8%. Eurostat also released GDP data, which showed a 0.4% increase in the euro area. Italy is among the countries with the lowest quarterly growth (zero), France is worse (-0.1%), while Germany is growing by 0.2% and Spain remains the most dynamic country, with 0.6%.

In Italy, renewed price pressures are impacting wages. In the second and third quarters, contractual wages grew less than inflation, according to Istat data . And in September, they remained unchanged from the previous month and increased only 2.5% compared to September 2025. This has halted the recovery in purchasing power, which is still more than 9% lower than in 2021.

The wage issue demands answers, according to UIL General Secretary Pierpaolo Bombardieri, who has called for wages to be adjusted for inflation even during the term of collective bargaining agreements. The Democratic Party has joined this appeal. "The tax system must also be indexed," reiterated labor policy chief Maria Cecilia Guerra, to prevent fiscal drag from reducing wages and salaries: according to official estimates, it has reduced wages by €35 billion since 2026.

(Unioneonline/vl)

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