2022 presidential elections: it will not be the year that will crown a woman at the Quirinale

On both sides, right and left of course, the greatest concern is, despite everything, to find the broadest convergence around a personality that, at the same time, is an expression of authority and prestige, acts as guarantor of the Constitution and , above all, is able to consolidate the so-called "legislative pact" already in place and useful for allowing its continuation even before guaranteeing the all too confused government activity.

This is an almost banal precondition in its statement, but so pregnant as to lead any interpreter towards a graded reasoning, from time to time inspired by an "ad excludendum" path, along the lines of which lukewarm figures with little social impact, such as that by Marta Cartabia, Letizia Moratti, or Alberta Casellati, are destined to dissolve, absorbed by the evanescence of a potential dialectical dialogue that should concern their person. In short, it will not be two thousand or twenty-two the year that will crown a woman at the Quirinale: those potentially "eligible for candidates" are not up to it, nor would they be able to offer sufficient guarantees of internal and international stability. The year two thousand and twenty-two will not even mark the revival of President Silvio Berlusconi: who has had had, and who has given has given, "scurdammoce or passed". And the formal investiture that came too easily from "those" of the "right" speaks volumes about the media effect that most likely they intended to pursue immediately, as if to justify the subsequent planned retreat due to the arrival of "causes of force majeure ", but too little on their actual" desired "which, far from being unanimously shared and seriously oriented towards the pursuit of a common goal, seem, in reality, inevitably conflicting and, if anything, unidirectionally aimed at inducing, effectively determining it , the political end of the founder of the center-right (who, for his part, can be anything but a poor naive).

After all, Matteo Renzi, as a good Beelzebub, has already seen fit to offer them the shore, suggesting his unconditional support in the hypothesis in which the coalition indicates an alternative name to that of the elderly Knight. But, with Matteo Renzi, and despite his small 2%, we know, there is little, very little, to be "serene" since, in terms of dangerous tactics, he has more than something to teach Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni i which, evidently, and in the circumstance, "of two they have never been able to make one". In a nutshell: the betrayal of the alleged sovereignists is just around the corner, and after all, many, both on the right and on the left, seem to rely on it without even pausing to reflect on a trivial circumstance: the "debacle" driven by Silvio Berlusconi , right now, and given the lack of a figure of equal charismatic potential, it would mark the end of the entire coalition and the bi-polar system. If he sinks, they all sink.

For this, and for many other reasons, I am sure that if the "bad parade" should materialize, the Leader of Arcore will be able to take his step to the side, and will even be able to become an active and effective part of the further choice: after all, always Silvio Berlusconi it is. To be honest, but also terribly pragmatic, even the hypothesis of seeing Mario Draghi transmigrate from Palazzo Chigi to Colle appears in all its illusoryness. Its mission (which can be subsumed in the capillary expression of the "calculated risk") has clearly failed, both as regards the management of the pandemic (we are indeed full stop), and as regards the rational organization of the funds of the National Recovery Plan and Resilience (we are increasingly poor and tired), and, above all, in relation to the political profile, in the context of which, far from offering the required "change of pace" with respect to the Conte Due government, it has instead acted in total continuity with it and, in some cases, even implementing the worst aspects. In fact, we continue to grope in the dark, without a solid and convinced guide capable of guaranteeing the country a safe guideline to follow and pursue.

The parties, then, guilty of having endorsed the choice, are well aware of the mistake made, and today they would like to avoid relying on the uncertain results of the polls. What is certain is that the very idea of a Prime Minister who aspires to jump to the honors of Colle sol because probably inspired in this sense by Sergio Mattarella, constitutes a constitutional "nonsense". All the more so when, to a desire for such consistency, we add the claim, far from veiled, to continue to influence, orienting it, on the formation of the new government. But the Draghi era is at an end: new tour, new race, but the wagons (the Rooms of Power) are empty and the passengers (the Parties), ignoring the direction, prefer to stay at the station.

On balance, and with everyone's peace of mind, the only abstractly conceivable and concretely feasible alternative is that of a Sergio Mattarella bis, and with good verisimilitude, that, and only that, will be the outcome. At least for two reasons:

1.- because the next President will necessarily have to "impose himself" on a shared perspective of political equilibrium;

2.- because, in any case, the new President will have to determine and guarantee a renewed political balance that is lasting.

In short, changing the order of the addends does not seem to change. On the one hand, or the other, the shared choice is the essential prerequisite. And such a shared choice can only fall on the only name useful for the purpose, namely that of Sergio Mattarella, conceived by all as a "safe used" shockproof. In the meantime, because the conditions do not seem to exist to be able to think about the affirmation of a renewed majority system based on the survival of the two alternative sides to the government. Therefore, because the recent and current scenario, characterized first by the Yellow-Green Government, by the Yellow-Red Government then, and by the Rainbow Government today, is clearly indicative of such a political-social indeterminacy as to need, as recognized by many, to a solution in a proportionally correct sense useful to avoid dangerous fragmentation.

Finally, because no solution appears to be so conservative of the status quo as that of pretending to change everything in order not to change anything, as if the planned inaction can guarantee the current equilibrium pending the next electoral round. What better solution, then, than to rely on dear and good Sergio who, in response, does not seem to want to act as a pure and simple crutch? Let's be clear: the propositional narrative emerging from the conflict is certainly erroneous and indelicate, and betrays the weakness of the sides in the field. You know, politics is ungenerous, and very unwilling to openly submit to a need, so that the mere thought of presenting oneself before the current President of the Republic with a "hat in hand", recognizing his binding force, appears as an aberrant hypothesis, even if necessary. We always and in any case return to the proverbial starting point: either the current Rainbow Government finds within itself a condition of potential static and decision-making balance or the next President, whoever he is, will be able to act as a decisive active part in the formation of a new Government, renewed in numbers and in substance. To date, I think I have no doubts: on February 3, it will neither be intoxicating "whiskey" (Silvio Berlusconi), nor "placid" soda (Marta Cartabia, Letizia Moratti, Alberta Casellati), much less "noisy" rock and roll (Mario Draghi). We will go on the classic and always green “smooth”, on Sergio Mattarella bis, which is safe and guaranteed used. What better way to avoid the polls?

Giuseppina Di Salvatore

(Lawyer - Nuoro)