A tough blow, but certainly not a knockout. Donald Trump's new 15% tariffs on pecorino cheese exports to the United States will undoubtedly weigh on the market for this Sardinian cheese, which exports approximately 40% of its total production overseas. However, insult has also come as a result, as the flat tariffs for Italian agri-food products will paradoxically benefit other cheeses, such as Parmigiano Reggiano and Grana Padano, which previously faced a 25% border tax.

Optimism

"It's an injustice, but it's not the time to panic," says Gianni Maoddi, president of the Pecorino Romano Protection Consortium, a flagship of Sardinian exports worldwide. "However, the fate of our cheese isn't sealed yet, and there's still time to negotiate a full exemption." Maoddi isn't pinning this hope on the wind, but on important precedents. "Already in the previous legislature, the Trump administration removed pecorino from the list of products to be taxed. The possibility of doing so again this time is therefore more than realistic."

Competition

The Sardinian dairy sector therefore has solid foundations to rely on for a quick solution. "The reason pecorino has always been exempt from customs duties is that the raw material, sheep's milk, does not generate competition with US domestic markets. However, the situation is different for cow's milk, which is used to make Grana and Parmigiano, the latter also produced in America."

In short, Maoddi is convinced it could be just a matter of time: "I don't believe there's a strategy behind it to damage our sector. We've simply become entangled in a trade policy that hasn't yet differentiated between the various product types, but which has every interest in doing so."

Consequences

Calculations of future damage have already been made. "For a market worth €170 million annually in the United States, the tariffs will impact prices by approximately €25 million. But only time will tell what the impact will be. I think, paradoxically, the ones who will be most affected will be the American companies that process pecorino cheese for the food industry. They could therefore replace it with other, less expensive cheeses, reduce the quantity, or pass the price increases on to consumers."

In any case, Maoddi assures, "it won't be a walk in the park." This is why the industry is taking action on multiple fronts to mitigate the impact. "On Sunday, I wrote to the Minister of Agriculture to request confirmation of a possible exemption for pecorino from duties. The government is trying to keep things quiet for now, but is actively working to remove some products from the customs lists. In the meantime, we're also talking to the Region and, above all, our partners to ensure they understand that this is the time to stand united and not be persuaded to lower prices to offset the duties. A devaluation of pecorino would be the worst damage that could be done to the entire sector."

Luca Mascia

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