"Omicron will spread, better not underestimate it"

“The consequence is that then people start saying: should we believe it? Could it be true? These are the communication errors, not the song I sang. The point is that we have to say how things stand. Even on what doesn't work one hundred percent ».

What can we expect from Omicron?

"A big increase in infections, because it is a variant that is transmitted very well especially among vaccinated people who, in fact, no longer represent a barrier. The cases are increasing and this poses a safety problem for those who are not yet vaccinated and for fragile people ».

However, it seems less symptomatic than the Delta variant.

"Yes, but if the Delta infects 50 thousand people and Omicron 200 thousand, in the end the impact on the health system is the same."

A question of proportionality.

"Exactly. The data seem to suggest that it is less aggressive in its ability to cause serious illness and the likelihood of ending up in resuscitation. But it is always a virus potentially capable of causing damage, especially in frail people and the elderly ».

Will it soon be prevalent?

"Yes, for an obvious reason: we, in fact, with vaccination have changed the ecosystem of the virus".

In what sense?

“Viruses, like all beings that reproduce on this earth, are subject to the law of natural selection. Variants are generated all the time, so in the beginning those that were best transmitted in susceptible people prevailed. Now, however, especially in Western countries, we have a large portion of the population protected or partially protected by vaccination, and it is clear that if a variant capable of infecting the vaccinated emerges, it spreads rapidly, and undermines the other that instead finds. a barrier ".

Will the virus adapt to us or will it get badder?

"In some cases the pathogens evolve towards a progressive decrease in damage, in other cases they do not."

Depends on what?

"Fundamentally from an aspect linked to evolution, and that is whether the disease is functional for the microorganism to transmit itself".

In which cases is the disease functional?

«I take an example from one of my fields of interest: malaria. Here, malaria can never evolve towards a benign form because, to be transmitted by the mosquito, the parasite needs to reach high levels of reproduction in the blood ».

That is, the density of parasites in the blood ...

«... determines the disease, a necessary condition for it to be transmitted. So a parasite that has low levels of reproduction in the blood will never be able to evolve, because it will have a low probability of being transmitted ».

And the virus we have at home instead?

“The good thing about this virus is that, since there are numerous asymptomatic cases, there is a possibility that extremely infectious and asymptomatic variants will develop. If it happened we would have solved the problem ».

What do you think of the restrictions decided by the control room?

"Sincerely? I think they should have listened to me first. I've been saying for months that the duration of the green pass must be aligned with the duration of the vaccine; that the Ffp2 mask is the safest way because it has a protection index close to 98%; that the green pass alone is not a public health measure. Unfortunately it took them six months to understand it ».

Do you have any advice to help us organize a family Christmas meal safely?

"I recommend limiting the number of families involved."

Are you saying we have to cut out the brothers-in-law?

(Laughs) “Not necessarily, there are many families with many children and siblings. But it is clear that it is much more dangerous to have seven or eight people from different families at the table, rather than the same number of people from two families ».

Therefore?

"Better try to limit meetings with people who don't meet often."

The mayor of Palau has imposed the green pass for family lunch.

«I don't pronounce myself. I just want to repeat that the green pass alone does not work. I have colleagues who took the third dose and got infected, yet they had the super green pass. This is not the way to stop the virus ».

And which?

"The mask. If we all use it when we get on public transport, go to the cinema and the theater, and every time we come into contact with people we don't know, I can assure you that together with vaccines we would give a major blow to the transmission of the virus ".

Where will you spend Christmas?

"At home, with my wife, my mother-in-law and my son."

How long will the pandemic last?

«It depends on many factors. From the development of more effective and long-lasting vaccines, from the number of people who will vaccinate and continue to do so, from the development of variants that may be able to infect vaccinated people. But now you can do two things: get vaccinated as much as possible with the third dose and try to use the mask diligently ".

Piera Serusi