Five days after the start of the counting, the official proclamation of those elected is still missing. Even today, the district commissions located in the courts of the island examined the reports received from the 1825 (out of 1844 total) sections examined, to conclude the calculations to then be transmitted to the Court of Appeal of Cagliari. In this phase, rather than a recount, there is a verification of the documents and the sums of the votes. It's a moment of waiting for the center-left. And of hope – expressed more or less openly in the last few hours – for the centre-right. On the other hand, the very small distance between Alessandra Todde and Paolo Truzzu, around 2600 votes, can authorize dreams of a reversal of roles.
What are the real chances of a twist? To understand this you need to know how many invalid and contested ballots there are. A figure that has not yet been disclosed at a regional level.
For the moment we can only make estimates. Based on the numbers released by the Municipalities. For example, in Cagliari it is known that out of 73 thousand voters, the votes considered invalid are less than 1,200: 1.6% of the total. The same percentage of invalid ballots was also found in Quartu (less than 500 out of 30 thousand voters). A figure which, combined with the total number of voters at a regional level, would set the number of invalid ballots at around 12 thousand.
Other estimates - based on a comparison with previous elections - speak of 15-16 thousand invalid votes. Are they enough to reverse the outcome described so far? Everyone can form an idea. But it's hard to say for sure. Also because, above all, the ballots contested by the list representatives during the counting operations have an impact. These are the ones on which an appeal can be lodged. In the Municipality of Cagliari there are just 57. If the proportion were respected, throughout the island there would not be a thousand. A number that at first glance seems insufficient to rewrite the outcome of the Regionals. So? Better to wait for communications from the Court of Appeal. To celebrate, or to acknowledge defeat.