A sharp decline in regional exports, also due to an international scenario marked by growing geopolitical tensions . This is what the latest report released by the CNA Sardinia Research Center indicates, analyzing the trend of Sardinia's exports through 2025 in light of the shocks caused by the tariff policy introduced by the United States starting April 1 of last year.
The data, it is emphasized, show "worrying signs of weakening." The overall value of exports of Sardinian products fell by 11.4%, from 6.7 to 5.9 billion euros: a loss of over 758 million euros .
The data is significantly impacted by the performance of the refined petroleum sector , which alone accounts for approximately 75% of regional exports. Excluding oil, the decline is reduced to -1.1%. Non-oil manufacturing closed 2025 essentially at breakeven (+2.9%), supported by the exceptional performance of the chemical sector (+12.4%) . Looking ahead, oil exports are expected to recover in 2026, supported by rising crude oil prices: in March 2026, Brent already exceeded $100 a barrel.
The agri-food sector closed 2025 with a 1.7% decline, but monthly data reveals a far more worrying trend . After a first half of the year supported by the American front-loading effect (advance purchases in anticipation of future tariffs), the final months of 2025 saw a sharp slowdown.
Specifically, cheese and dairy products recorded a 1.9% decline (64.6% share of agri-food exports), while Pecorino Romano exports to the US saw a steady decline from August to December (-30%, -2.4%, -8.8%, -12%, -18%) with an annual decline of -2.8%. Wines and beverages also fell 9.4% and olive oil 21.3%, after years of uninterrupted growth.
The American market, CNA highlights, accounted for approximately 10% of the total value of Sardinian exports between 2023 and 2024. The decline in overall exports to the US—from nearly €234 million in the last quarter of 2022 to less than €45 million in the same period of 2025 (-81% in three years)—is almost entirely attributable to the refined petroleum sector, whose share of the US market has plummeted from 10% to 2.4% of the sector's total . Agri-food has become the leading export sector to the US, with approximately €130 million in 2025. The American market still accounts for over 52% of Sardinian food sales. "Trade uncertainty—between tariff threats, US Supreme Court rulings that have not affected sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, and rising transportation costs linked to the war in Iran—represents a systemic risk for Sardinian exporters," explains CNA, which identifies two strategic groups of alternative markets for relaunching agri-food exports: mature markets (Spain, Canada, Australia) and emerging markets (Poland, South Korea, United Arab Emirates) to reduce dependence on the American market.
"The 2025 data," stated Luigi Tomasi and Francesco Porcu , regional president and secretary of CNA Sardinia, respectively, "confirm the structural fragility of our export system. When nearly three-quarters of our foreign sales depend on a single sector—oil—and the excellent agri-food products we've spent decades building are at risk of losing their primary market due to geopolitical factors over which we have no leverage, the issue of diversification ceases to be a strategic choice and becomes an urgent one. We strongly urge," concluded Tomasi and Porcu, "that the Region and the national government implement concrete tools to support internationalization , starting with resources dedicated to the penetration of new markets for our agri-food SMEs. We also need an integrated promotion plan that engages our artisan businesses and supports them in this transition."