"Over the next thirty years, Sardinia risks losing up to 219,000 potential workers." The alarm was raised by the CNA Sardinia Research Center , which analyzed the impact of demographic trends on the regional labor market.
According to estimates, the Sardinian population between 20 and 64—the age group used by the European Union to measure employment— is expected to decrease by approximately 366,000 by 2054, from the current 907.6,000 to 542,000, a contraction of 40.3% . In this scenario, applying current labor market parameters, potential employment would decline from 558,000 to 339,000.
Simulations that considered all Italian regions confirmed that Sardinia is the region most exposed to the contraction: -40.3% of the working-age population and -39.3% of potential employed people expected between 2025 and 2054, ahead of Basilicata, Puglia, Campania, and Sicily.
This figure also reflects the island's status: in continental regions, part of the population loss can be mitigated by interregional mobility and medium- to long-distance commuting, mechanisms that remain weaker and more costly in Sardinia.
Even in the short term, the European target remains out of reach: projecting the pure demographic scenario to 2030, Sardinia would reach an employment rate of 61.1%, with a gap of over 100,000 workers compared to the target of 73%. Even assuming full employment and full recovery of the discouraged, the gap would still remain between 74,000 and 91,000 workers.
Furthermore, according to CNA, the decline in the working-age population will not be uniform across age groups. The sharpest decline, in percentage terms, will affect 20-24 year-olds, who could more than halve (-54.0%), weakening generational turnover. They are followed by 50-64 year-olds (-43.4%) and 25-34 year-olds (-41.1%), while the central 35-49 age group will decline by -32.6% but remains the most significant in absolute terms, as it currently contains the largest share of potential workers.
The greatest loss, in absolute terms, is concentrated in the mature age groups: -102.3 thousand employed people between the ages of 50 and 64 and -70 thousand between the ages of 35 and 49 in the pure demographic scenario . Even in the more expansive scenario, which recovers much of the unemployment and discouraged population, the loss in these two groups remains significant (-78.9 thousand and -44 thousand, respectively): no activation policy can offset the impact of the decline in demographic cohorts. While the long-term projection paints a picture of significant crisis, the most recent snapshot of the Sardinian labor market shows distinctly positive signs. On average, employed residents in 2025 will reach 598,000 (+1% over 2024, +6% over 2021). Among the 20-64 age group, the employment rate increased from 56.1% in 2018 to 62.9% in 2025, the unemployment rate dropped from 15.6% to 9.4%, and the participation rate rose from 66.5% to 69.4%. Structural issues with job quality remain: the highest part-time rate in Italy (24%), one in five young people is NEET (19%), involuntary part-time work at 12.4%, and youth and long-term unemployment.
"The numbers in this study speak clearly: Sardinia cannot afford to wait. The demographic decline is already in the cards for the next thirty years, and no active policy measure alone will be able to fully offset it," commented Luigi Tomasi , president of CNA Sardinia, on the report.
"This doesn't mean we're facing an inevitable fate," he adds, "it means we must act on multiple fronts simultaneously, from female participation to the retention of mature workers, from combating school dropouts to attracting skills from outside, and through investments in productivity and digitalization. This is a momentous challenge," Tomasi concludes, "for Sardinia's ruling class, and the artisan businesses and SMEs we represent must be the protagonists of this transition."